JUST IN: Forecasting Caleb Williams’ rookie statistics.

Some of you may read this headline and react with skepticism.

“They haven’t even drafted him yet!”

Irrelevant.

Caleb Williams is slated to be the quarterback for the Chicago Bears, so let’s dive into the discussion, shall we?

I find it enjoyable to predict statistics, but let’s not just make wild guesses; let’s approach it with some context.

To begin, let’s examine the performances of quarterbacks selected in the top 10 over the last five years. There have been 11 such quarterbacks: Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Daniel Jones. Due to insufficient playing time, we’ll exclude Richardson and Lance, leaving us with nine quarterbacks.

Now, assuming Williams plays 17 games, let’s analyze the per-game statistics of these quarterbacks.

If we average the rookie seasons of these nine quarterbacks and extrapolate them over 17 games, here’s what we get:

62.3% completion rate, 3944 yards, 22 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 6.6 yards per attempt, an 85.6 passer rating, and 48 sacks.

Impressive numbers, indeed.

Let’s use these figures as a baseline and adjust for Williams’ playing style, potential, and circumstances.

Williams will have better receiving options than most of these quarterbacks, but Coach Waldron might lean towards a more balanced offense, so Williams’ pass attempts per game might be slightly lower.

I anticipate Williams’ completion percentage to stay close to the average, around 63%. These rookies averaged 35 attempts per game, but Williams might have fewer due to Waldron’s strategy, let’s say 32 attempts per game.

Considering Williams’ style and his supporting cast, his touchdown rate might be higher, but he might also throw more interceptions. Additionally, his sack rate could be higher than average due to his style of play.

Yards per attempt is crucial, and since the rookies averaged 6.6, let’s assume Williams can surpass that, though not dramatically. It’s plausible for him to approach 7.0 yards per attempt.

Lastly, given his talented teammates, let’s increase his touchdown rate by 10%.

So, if Williams starts 17 games as a rookie, what might his numbers look like? Prepare to be intrigued.

343-544, 63.1% completion rate, 3,754 yards, 24 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 6.9 yards per attempt, 87.4 passer rating, 51 sacks, with 8.6% sacked per dropback.

If Williams sustains an injury and misses games, it will affect these numbers, and he might face challenges akin to Bryce Young or Zach Wilson. However, his potential suggests he could emulate successful rookie seasons like those of Justin Herbert or CJ Stroud.

Regardless, if Caleb Williams achieves a rookie season like this, it would rank among the top in franchise history, setting him on a promising path for his career in Chicago.

What do you think, Bears fans? Is this a reasonable projection for the anticipated number-one draft pick? Share your thoughts in the comments!